A recent poll indicates that Poland’s Civic Coalition (KO), although still the largest political group, may face challenges in forming a majority government if elections were held at present. The survey shows KO receiving 27.3% of the support, a slight decline from the previous 28.7%. Meanwhile, the Law and Justice (PiS) party has seen an increase of 2.8 percentage points, reaching 20.6%, and the Confederation party has risen to 14.1%.
Other parties also featured in the poll include the Confederation of the Polish Crown, which garnered 8.4%, the Left with 7.1%, and Development Plus at 6.5%. Notably, Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), both associated with the current governing alliance, have fallen below the electoral threshold.
Projections based on the poll results suggest that a coalition of KO and the Left would control approximately 198 seats, falling short by 33 seats of the 231 required for a majority in parliament. On the other hand, a potential alliance of PiS with Confederation and Development Plus would also not reach a majority, securing only 224 seats. However, adding the Confederation of the Polish Crown to this right-wing bloc could potentially increase their count to an estimated 262 seats.
It is important to note that this survey was conducted before recent developments involving Radosław Piesiewicz, the president of the Polish Olympic Committee, and controversy surrounding an expensive Patek Philippe watch. Any political ramifications stemming from this issue are not accounted for in the poll results.