The European steel industry has a grim prediction for the outcome of the latest US consultation on tariffs: the goal is “to expand, not to cut” the list of affected products. This pessimistic outlook reflects a deep-seated belief that the United States is committed to widening its protectionist measures, regardless of the impact on its allies.
This prediction is based on the trajectory of the US policy. What started as a tariff on primary metals has already grown to include a 407-category list of “derivative” goods. The new consultation, which closes on September 29, is seen not as a genuine review but as the next step in a deliberate expansion strategy.
The industry also points to a reported US intention to review the list three times a year as further evidence of this expansionist mindset. A regular review cycle provides a recurring opportunity to add more products, creating a mechanism for a slow but steady increase in trade barriers.
This outlook is shaping the EU’s response. Believing that the US is not negotiating in good faith, industry bodies are shifting their focus from dialogue to defense. Eurofer’s call for a “strong new trade measure” is a direct consequence of the assessment that the US tariff regime will only get worse.
The “expand, not to cut” mantra has become a rallying cry for a more hawkish stance in Europe. It encapsulates the loss of trust in the US as a predictable trading partner and is fueling the argument that the EU must now take unilateral steps to protect its own economic interests.